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World economic forecast 2025 - 2050
21/04/08
A report from
analysts PricewaterhouseCoopers called ‘The World in 2050’:
highlights the 13 new emerging economies that have the potential to
grow significantly faster than the current ‘Big 8’ O.E.C.D.
countries (US, Japan, Brazil, Germany, UK, Russia, France, etc).
China will overtake the US by 2025 to become the world’s largest
economy and grow to 130% of the size of the US by 2050.
India will
grow to 90% of the size of the US by 2050.
Brazil will
overtake Japan by 2050 to move into fourth place
Russia, Mexico
and Indonesia have the potential to have economies larger than those
of Germany or the UK by 2050.
The fastest mover will be Vietnam, with a potential growth rate of
10% per year that will make it 70% of the size of the UK economy by
2050.
The report also highlights that there are many other alternatives
worth considering, depending on the nature of the investment and the
risk tolerance of the investor.
Nigeria will overtake South Africa to be the largest African economy
by 2050.
The
Philippines, Egypt, Bangladesh and Turkey also have high growth
potential but also high risk levels.
There will be
winners and losers from the process of adjusting to this new world
economic order.
Retailers should win by benefiting from lower cost imports into
their markets while also having the potential to set up new stores
in the emerging countries.
China will be
the second largest consumer market in the world by 2020, while
cities across the leading emerging markets from Shanghai to Mexico
City will have rapidly growing middle class populations with the
spending power to afford Western consumer goods and services.
Other winners will be business services, energy and utilities,
healthcare, educational services, media companies and leading global
brands.
All of these
are well placed to benefit from the rapid growth in emerging markets
provided they can identify and execute the appropriate business
strategies, bearing in mind that strong domestic competitors either
already exist or will probably soon emerge in these markets.
Losers will be mass market manufacturers due to increased low-cost
Chinese competition.
New
competitors like Vietnam will challenge China as the leader of
low-cost manufacturing in the global economy, while China itself
moves into higher technology areas just as Japan and South Korea did
in earlier decades.
Other potential losers will include companies (including
manufacturers) that are heavy users of energy and other commodities
as inputs, given the likely upward pressure on the relative prices
of these commodities from rapid growth in China and other emerging
economies.
In coming
years, for all business, commercial and industrial sectors, cutting
energy consumption and carbon emissions will be one of the most
important challenges posed by the rapid growth of the new emerging
economies.
Nick Gibson, editor
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