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Dark Fibre Market 2008
16/05/08
New research
by consulting firm BroadGroup shows that dark fibre growth continues
to be sustained in European metro markets, but will be faster and
more substantial in Central and Eastern Europe.
Research for two new reports – Dark Fibre Markets in Europe II, and
Dark Fibre Markets in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe –
reveals a contrast in the pace and extent of Dark Fibre growth
across the region.
Re-visiting issues first identified in the BroadGroup study of 2005,
the new European study reaffirms the continued expansion of Dark
Fibre in Europe, with steady growth averaging at 8% per annum,
continuing through to 2012. The boom and bust approach to new
network deployment has vanished, and has been replaced by an air of
caution with speculative fibre build out being kept to a minimum and
mainly focused on the access part of the network to the customer
site in metro markets.
Perhaps most strikingly, the report, which covers 17 country
markets, contends that evidence collected in research supports the
view that Dark Fibre is becoming a service of choice for an
increasingly large number of companies, and is emerging as a
marketplace of opportunity, rather than its former image as an
arcane and inaccessible part of the network. New players see it as a
service to sell to enterprises and other operators, rather than a
strategic asset to retain.
In contrast, Central and Eastern Europe and its southern neighbours
(26 markets) reveals encouraging signs of growth in deployment and
much higher than in western Europe. Demand drivers are present, new
optical hardware and software is available - although apparently at
a higher price than in western markets - and even duct space is
present, owned largely by railways and utilities.
“The contrast between western markets, and those in the east reveals
something of the divide,” commented Steve Wallage, managing director
at BroadGroup Consulting. “Equipment suppliers and operators should
be leveraging the current opportunities which will provide strategic
assets for the future. However regulators need to move more quickly
to open markets to altnets without whom broadband connectivity will
leave the significant customer base under served.”
Research for the report suggests that in some instances, Dark Fibre
is more prevalently perceived as a tactical deployment, as
investment focuses on network upgrades to engage in future triple or
quad plays. WiMAX, rather than Dark Fibre, is also recognised as a
cheaper way to bypass the local loop. NRENs are driving demand for
Dark Fibre across the entire region compared to enterprises.
Yet much is forecast to change, and future opportunity for Dark
Fibre will emerge as more strategic. In the first instance, there is
a clear need to elevate Dark Fibre from its perception as a raw
unmanaged capacity to a quality longer term investment, that
delivers a range of standard and premium managed services.
Where wholesale and NRENs drive market demand in the east, it is the
enterprises who will create new growth opportunity in western
markets, although location and awareness will remain critical
dependencies. In the medium to long term, emerging markets growth
will be linked to fibre to support data centre growth, mobile,
wholesale and enterprise demand.
BroadGroup is
also producing the first Dark Fibre Convention which takes place in
London 12-13 June 2008 (www.darkfibreconvention.com)
Nick Gibson, editor
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